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Payroll tax cuts: Job creation or Main Street bailout?
September 9th, 2011
08:27 PM ET

Payroll tax cuts: Job creation or Main Street bailout?

President Obama wants to cut payroll taxes in half to put more money in the pockets of workers under the premise that fatter paychecks mean people will buy more, leading to more jobs.

The White House figures that would put about $1,500 in the pockets of the average working family. That alone would cost the government some $175 billion next year, according to Moody's Analytics.

That’s almost twice what the president wants to spend putting people to work building things like roads, bridges and schools.

But is there any evidence that payroll tax cuts help boost the economy?

Opinions vary, but one thing is certain: It’s hard to predict what families will do with the extra cash, said economist Matthew Shapiro at the University of Michigan.

“Our findings suggest what they will do depends very much on what they expect the near future to look like,” Shapiro said.

If the economy’s looking weak, then people might hang on to that cash, he said.

But, if the economy picks up, “Households might be more comfortable spending the extra cash rather than using it as a buffer against a very uncertain future,” he said.

Shapiro has studied what people said they did with money they saved from payroll tax cuts in 2011. Most of them said they didn’t spend it. They used it to pay off debt or they saved it.

If that’s the case with Obama's latest cuts, that won't add much to economic growth.

That’s why government spending programs on roads, bridges and school repairs give more bang for the buck in boosting the economy, said Lawrence Mishel with the Economic Policy Institute. The government always spends money, though not always quickly.

"The government doesn’t save any money. They don’t pay any debt with it,” Mishel said. “They’re also less likely to generate imports. People, even when they go out and spend, may buy a bunch of stuff from China, which stimulates China, not the U.S."

However, giving workers more money helps in times like these, Mishel said. The money from this year’s payroll tax cut helped families deal with higher food and gasoline prices.

That may give a clue as to why the president's package would put the most money into fattening workers' paychecks - more than he would give in tax breaks to employers and more than he would give to brick-and-mortar projects that create jobs.

Bill McInturff is a Republican pollster whose job is taking the pulse of voters, especially swing voters. He has written about how the spiral in consumer confidence is tied to the downward spiral in people’s confidence in their leaders.

McInturff said he’s hearing one thing over and over in focus groups around the country.

"They’re saying, 'Look, the big banks got a bailout, the car companies got a bailout who’s left to bail ME out?'"

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Filed under: Budget • Economy • Taxes
soundoff (146 Responses)
  1. Jazzzzzzzz

    I'm not being, arrogant or dismissive, I thought I dd something loving by posting that poem

    September 10, 2011 at 1:26 am | Report abuse | Reply
  2. Jj

    people in america will invest it on realestate. no wait it will be on a fancy phone they cant afford while we pay for their kids and tattoos

    September 10, 2011 at 1:28 am | Report abuse | Reply
  3. Jazzzzzzzz

    I mean how can one turn from their sin if they don't know what they did wrong, right?
    Please understand what I'm trying to say

    September 10, 2011 at 1:29 am | Report abuse | Reply
  4. layminister herman

    @jazzzzzyyy you must be a beautiful woman on the inside Because jazzy thats the kind of beauty that makes a man do that And do be concerned that man wants you if you dont go give yourself to him you will regret it

    September 10, 2011 at 1:30 am | Report abuse | Reply
  5. Jj

    its confession time? im not goin there...

    September 10, 2011 at 1:39 am | Report abuse | Reply
  6. Jazzzzzzzz

    Ok, I'm not going to go into what I think I need to repent for here in public
    just to say I will not be doing the things I was doing before, Ya know?
    From the time I meant you till now
    I'll start there with my transformation
    Good Night my friend

    September 10, 2011 at 1:40 am | Report abuse | Reply
  7. Jazzzzzzzz

    God doesn't force Jj, good night

    September 10, 2011 at 1:41 am | Report abuse | Reply
  8. layminister herman

    @jazzzz THats easy one jazzy lady ONE HAS ONLY SINED IF THAT PERSON KNEW WHAT THEY WERE DOING WAS A SIN

    September 10, 2011 at 1:44 am | Report abuse | Reply
  9. Jj

    what did i do wrong?? ok i confess! ill vote for the right guy this time! three hail marys and youre forgiven my son

    September 10, 2011 at 1:44 am | Report abuse | Reply
    • S1N

      In order to vote for the "right guy", a respectable candidate would have to be running. Sadly, that is not the case (from either side of the aisle).

      Do you prefer spineless and unrealistic or bat-sh!t crazy? Those are your only choices for 2012.

      September 10, 2011 at 2:34 am | Report abuse |
  10. Jazzzzzzzz

    Opps , excuse me, Just gotta grab the last post from Reflections of Jesus' word @ 1:19 am
    Night all :)

    September 10, 2011 at 1:45 am | Report abuse | Reply
  11. layminister herman

    May god bring you sweet dreams sweet lady till we talk tommorow

    September 10, 2011 at 1:51 am | Report abuse | Reply
    • S1N

      I talked to God once. Jesus was there too. I am NEVER using LSD again.

      September 10, 2011 at 2:32 am | Report abuse |
  12. Recollections of Jesus' words

    @Jazzy...1.) You began your path to wisdom when you began aquiring knowledge that leads to life. (John 17:3) 2.) "The Truth shall set you free." Free from fear of man...fear of EQ's, fear of "terrorists", fear of some "superpower" destroying this earth that God made for us to live on. 3.) "The fear of God [wholesom dread of displeasing Him] is the beginning of Wisdom."-Psalm 111:10 4.) You fear God, Jazzy, and will become more knowledgable and wise. 5.) Me? I am wise concerning the ways of the world of ungodly mankind to be sure...the crooked governments illegal wars, the crooked money-makers with greed, the crooked clergy, etc.6.)The very secrets they keep are revealed in their very keeping of them. "There is nothing carefully concealed that will not be fully revealed" as one bible writer puts it. But what has this wisdom to offer me...you? Nothing without ears that really hear it. And very few here do, 'cept for the ones like you, Jazzy. 7.) We are both eager to share what we learn. We will be wise.

    September 10, 2011 at 2:00 am | Report abuse | Reply
    • S1N

      Let someone point a loaded gun at your head and see how "free of fear" you are. Just another "holier than thou" inbred.

      September 10, 2011 at 2:29 am | Report abuse |
  13. @ lay minister

    Hogwash, again. 1.) Sin. lit. 'to miss the mark of perfection'. 2.) We are all imperfect, and so therefor we are all sinners. 3.) You aren't the only one who confuses inherited sin with willfull sin and and crime.Most do. 4.) Jesus didn't die so that we could all commit crimes and willful sins and just say sorry and be on our merry way. He died for the sins we inherited from Adam. 5.) A mere judge sitting on the bench can forgive crimes, even willful ones. But he will be expecting to see you going the other way and not having to go before him again. Jesus is not less than a mere human judge. Jesus loves his obedient children especially, and expects more out of them than the disobedient children. He expects them to be truly repentant for their entire lives.

    September 10, 2011 at 2:11 am | Report abuse | Reply
    • S1N

      Lay minister- You are an idiot. This is likely due to the fact that you are Christian. Inherited sin is the simple most ridiculous concept ever invented. Your "God" is an idiot for inventing it. By your "God" I mean the con-artist who, assuming he even existed, convinced a large number of imbeciles that he could walk on water and heal the sick. I am also referring to the con-artists who invented the collection of fairy tales called "The Old Testament".

      September 10, 2011 at 2:28 am | Report abuse |
  14. @ lay minister

    *facepalm* gn all. (i'll check this thread in the am for replies of substance or more chit-chatty ignoring)

    September 10, 2011 at 2:20 am | Report abuse | Reply
  15. Jj

    just sayin that i know the future on this one. with bomba gone its a good start!

    September 10, 2011 at 2:51 am | Report abuse | Reply
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