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Payroll tax cuts: Job creation or Main Street bailout?
September 9th, 2011
08:27 PM ET

Payroll tax cuts: Job creation or Main Street bailout?

President Obama wants to cut payroll taxes in half to put more money in the pockets of workers under the premise that fatter paychecks mean people will buy more, leading to more jobs.

The White House figures that would put about $1,500 in the pockets of the average working family. That alone would cost the government some $175 billion next year, according to Moody's Analytics.

That’s almost twice what the president wants to spend putting people to work building things like roads, bridges and schools.

But is there any evidence that payroll tax cuts help boost the economy?

Opinions vary, but one thing is certain: It’s hard to predict what families will do with the extra cash, said economist Matthew Shapiro at the University of Michigan.

“Our findings suggest what they will do depends very much on what they expect the near future to look like,” Shapiro said.

If the economy’s looking weak, then people might hang on to that cash, he said.

But, if the economy picks up, “Households might be more comfortable spending the extra cash rather than using it as a buffer against a very uncertain future,” he said.

Shapiro has studied what people said they did with money they saved from payroll tax cuts in 2011. Most of them said they didn’t spend it. They used it to pay off debt or they saved it.

If that’s the case with Obama's latest cuts, that won't add much to economic growth.

That’s why government spending programs on roads, bridges and school repairs give more bang for the buck in boosting the economy, said Lawrence Mishel with the Economic Policy Institute. The government always spends money, though not always quickly.

"The government doesn’t save any money. They don’t pay any debt with it,” Mishel said. “They’re also less likely to generate imports. People, even when they go out and spend, may buy a bunch of stuff from China, which stimulates China, not the U.S."

However, giving workers more money helps in times like these, Mishel said. The money from this year’s payroll tax cut helped families deal with higher food and gasoline prices.

That may give a clue as to why the president's package would put the most money into fattening workers' paychecks - more than he would give in tax breaks to employers and more than he would give to brick-and-mortar projects that create jobs.

Bill McInturff is a Republican pollster whose job is taking the pulse of voters, especially swing voters. He has written about how the spiral in consumer confidence is tied to the downward spiral in people’s confidence in their leaders.

McInturff said he’s hearing one thing over and over in focus groups around the country.

"They’re saying, 'Look, the big banks got a bailout, the car companies got a bailout who’s left to bail ME out?'"

Click the audio player to hear this story from CNN Radio's Libby Lewis:


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Filed under: Budget • Economy • Taxes
soundoff (146 Responses)
  1. Jazzzzzzzz

    This will be the last one, sorry folks I am obviously possed by the spirit today
    JOhn 8:51 "I tell you the truth, if anyone keeps my word, he will never see death""

    Bye all

    September 10, 2011 at 2:46 pm | Report abuse | Reply
  2. Recollections of online relationships

    1.) Living in Colorado, with ex and daughter living in Tempe, AZ. 2.) Ex calls and thinks daughter, 15, is having an online affair with an older man. 3.) Hack-in to daughters email and get the dudes address, for he had invited her over. 4.) Immediatly close my business down, and head for Phoenix, litening to the same Chuck Loeb song over and over again the whole way. 5.) Knock on the dudes apartment door. Dude opens door. I say "recognize me?" (my daughter takes after my looks bigtime) 6.) Dudes jaw drops, then "crack"...Dude drops and I take the boots to him. I stroll into his apartment...he was a sicko, but his Budweiser was cold. 7.) Dude regains conciousness. "If you ever contact my daughter again, you are a dead man." Beat Dude unconcious one last time. (my fingers actually got tangled-up in his shabby hair, and as I was trying to free them, his head kept banging against the kitchen floor. 8.) Knock on ex's door. Ex's jaw drops. Daughter runs-out back door, chase her down and sit on her for about...

    September 10, 2011 at 3:11 pm | Report abuse | Reply
  3. Recollections of online relationships

    ...15 min. giving her the what-for. We go to dinner and the waterpark, then play tennis all night. I head home and opened my shop the next day right on time. 9.) There is no such thing as a genuine relationship betwixt a man and a woman without eye contact and touch. (obviously, a man seperated from his wife could use the internet to keep "touch" with his wife, whom he had "touched" many many times previously...10.) Some people actually meet online and bump-uglies using graphic expressions and picture mail/video. I guess I'm just not that kind of Dude. fin

    September 10, 2011 at 3:19 pm | Report abuse | Reply
  4. Jazzzzzzzz

    As well as I am NOT that kind of women
    The air of sweet November
    A well deserved vacation
    Maybe even a move to that place if it is right will do the trick
    If that is, the man is free from all others

    September 10, 2011 at 3:25 pm | Report abuse | Reply
  5. THE ONE AND ONLY DRAKOREX

    GUNG THIS IS THE ONE AND ONLY !!!!! I HAVE A SCRATHED CORNEA I PUT A MUFFLER ON MY TRUCK SOME THING YOUR SOFT GIRLIE HANDS CANT DO MOST LIKELY YOUR HANDS ARE BUSY ALL THE TIME THATS ALL FROM THE ONE AND ONLY LIGHT HURTS MY EYE I M JUST CHECKING ON SOME HATE FILLED STUFF I KNEW WOULD BE HERE ILL BE BACK SOON ENOUGH WHEN MY EYE HEALS I TOLD YOU I DON T HIDE HERE I AM TALK IF YOUR E MOUTH IS NOT FULL NOW!!! BBBBBAAAACCCKK OUUUUUTTT!!!!

    September 10, 2011 at 3:28 pm | Report abuse | Reply
  6. Recollections of online relationships

    1.) I'm not the kind of man who is foolish enough to believe that a man who was never kept could possibly be miscontrued as gulty of "leaving". Igmoring someone and taking one's leave is what God recommends for a man like me. A pantywaiste would sit there and waste much time going back-and-forth with his online friend. Tempo rubato. Time, if not wasted bickering, heals.

    September 10, 2011 at 3:32 pm | Report abuse | Reply
  7. THE ONE AND ONLY DRAKOREX1

    CORRECTION. BYE NOW...

    September 10, 2011 at 3:33 pm | Report abuse | Reply
  8. banasy©

    Had a scratched cornea one.
    It was some of the worst pain I felt, physically, next to labor and childbirth the first time.

    Get better, Drakorex1, and see you soon.

    SMH. Whoa.

    September 10, 2011 at 3:41 pm | Report abuse | Reply
  9. Jazzzzzzzz

    Did I ever say I wanted to bicker in public, No
    If Gods word was truly in me I would have never said what I did in that text yesterday mourning, my fault as I see it now.
    I would have chosen I different way to meet, If I had the choice, but that is past.
    I will not address this issue any longer in public
    And time does heal , HUG and good bye if this is what your saying

    September 10, 2011 at 3:42 pm | Report abuse | Reply
  10. Recollections of online relationships

    When ones airs laundry in public, it is because they are less-than dignified...no class. Hence our difficulties. gb Mary. Please do not send me another 50 texts freaking out as if you had lost a lover. he he...and there goes my dignity. So long everyone. See ya 'round another site perhaps someday. (click)

    September 10, 2011 at 3:55 pm | Report abuse | Reply
  11. Jazzzzzzzz

    I did not air anything you would not do this privately

    September 10, 2011 at 3:59 pm | Report abuse | Reply
  12. banasy©

    GTG:
    No again.
    Blast it all, not again!
    Please tell me where you go so I can visit.
    Please don't let one person ruin what can benefit so many.
    I'm tired.
    I'm going to sleep.

    September 10, 2011 at 4:03 pm | Report abuse | Reply
  13. THE ONE AND ONLY DRAKOREX1

    BANASY© KNOWS HOW TO SPELL * CORNEA* YOU TROLL.

    September 10, 2011 at 4:44 pm | Report abuse | Reply
  14. banasy©

    I spelled it correctly, Drakorex1.
    I spelled it cornea.
    That *was* me!

    September 10, 2011 at 4:53 pm | Report abuse | Reply
  15. Riight

    Good Ole BArry (I hate being white)sorretto and his mainstreet bailouts again...

    September 10, 2011 at 5:04 pm | Report abuse | Reply
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