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How the oil-disaster flow estimates have evolved
U.S. government officials on Tuesday said they now estimate the ruptured BP well in the Gulf of Mexico is spewing 35,000 and 60,000 barrels (1.5 million gallons to 2.5 million gallons) per day; that's significantly more than the first estimate of 1,000 barrels per day in late April.
Below is a recap of the different estimates that officials have made, and when they made them, since the disaster began with the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig on April 20.
- April 23: Three days after the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon rig, and one day after the rig sank, Coast Guard Rear Adm. Mary Landry said crews were cleaning up a 1- by 12-mile-long oil slick spreading through Gulf waters. She said crude oil did not appear to be leaking out of the wellhead but that remote vehicles would survey the scene. BP officials had said a day earlier that BP they did not know whether oil or fuel was leaking from the rig. But BP Vice President David Rainey said: "It certainly has the potential to be a major spill."
- April 24: Landry said oil was leaking from two places - later to be clarified as two places on the riser pipe extending from the well's blowout preventer - at a preliminary estimate of about 1,000 barrels (42,000 gallons) a day. Officials later said that the two leaks were found within 36 hours of the April 20 explosion.
- April 28: Landry said the estimated amount of oil spilling into the Gulf of Mexico has increased to 5,000 barrels (210,000 gallons) a day, five times the initial estimate. The new estimate was based on analysis from the federal National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, she says. Also, BP official Doug Suttles said the company has found a third leak in the riser pipe.
- May 2: Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Thad Allen said it was impossible so far to know how much oil will eventually leak.
"We lost a total well head; it could be 100,000 barrels [4.2 million gallons] or more a day," Allen told CNN's "State of the Union." The official estimate, though, remained at 5,000 barrels (210,000 gallons) a day.
"This spill, at this point in my view, is indeterminate," Allen said. "That makes it asymmetrical, anomalous and one of the most complex things we've ever dealt with."
- May 13: After BP released underwater video footage of the leak, independent experts such as Purdue University associate professor Steve Wereley said the flow rate is probably much higher than the official estimate.
Wereley estimated that about 70,000 barrels (2.94 million gallons) of oil were leaking each day, based on an analysis of video of the spill. "You can't say with precision, but you can see there's definitely more coming out of that pipe than people thought," he said. "It's definitely not 5,000 barrels a day."
- May 27: A panel of government experts estimated the well is spewing oil at a rate of 12,000 to 19,000 barrels (504,000 to 798,000 gallons) a day, U.S. Geological Survey chief Marcia McNutt said.
- June 10: The panel of government experts, called the Flow Rate Technical Group, estimated the well was leaking 20,000 to 40,000 barrels (840,000 to 1.7 million gallons) per day through June 3. The figure was calculated in part by using high-definition video that BP released after demands from members of Congress.
The new estimate was of the well's flow rate before BP's cutting of the damaged riser pipe extending from the well's blowout preventer on June 3, McNutt said. After BP cut the riser that day, it placed a containment cap over the preventer's lower marine riser package to capture some of the leaking oil.
Scientists estimated that the spill's flow rate increased by 4 to 5 percent after the well's riser pipe was cut last week in order to place the cap atop the well.
BP said that with the cap, it was capturing about 16,000 barrels daily and sending it to a ship on the surface. Before that, BP was capturing some oil through a siphon inserted into the well riser.
- June 15: Government officials increased the estimate to between 35,000 and 60,000 barrels (1.5 million gallons to 2.5 million gallons) per day.
The change was "based on updated information and scientific assessments," the Deepwater Horizon Incident Joint Information Center said.
"The improved estimate is based on more and better data that is now available and that helps increase the scientific confidence in the accuracy of the estimate," it said.
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No sympathy for any of the parties involved in the spill...but come on...Like our government can do any better with estimates? They can't even get budgets right...they lie to all of us everyday too. It's the world we live in sadly.
so, over a 100,000,000 gallons of oil are in the gulf now? hmmm, well, seems like somebody oughta do something. like my father used to say when i was a kid, a hundred years ago, pull your thumb out of your butt and do something!!! It's time for the government to take over and get someone who knows what they're doing to actually stop this leak. btw, i pull up the live video of the gusher almost everyday and today it looks as though it blowing more oil out of it that it ever has... Tony Hayward or however you spell this idiot's name is just a figurehead, he knows nothing, he should be put out of our misery and dissolve BP and distribute the money to the Gulf denizens. RIGHT AFTER THEY STOP THIS LEAK!!!
Hello,
I have been trouble shooting the possibilities on what needs to be done about the oil spill. There is no reversing the situation. However, diluting the situation will make it less of an impact and allow the plans to clean up the spill easier. The United states has a resource that is extremely valuable. We have enough water dammed upstream from the east coast to the far wast that would run straight into the gulf, cool it off, push the oil back, and dilute it. It is time to open up our dams, full throttle, as much as possible. It will generate energy, clean up the rivers, lakes and tributaries. It will lower the temperature of the gulf decreasing the chance of a hurricane, and it will take off at least 50% of the impact this spills effect. Some one look into this, my calculations show it will work better than we imagine.
Is not the leak sending out both gases(Methane?) and Crude oil? Is it not possible that perhaps the ratio of both has changed over time? Maybe at the beginning it was 90% gas and 10% oil, and now it has evolved to 10% gas and 90% oil. Its easy to just assume that BP was lying about how much is leaking but that seems like a foolish thing to attempt and not ever be able to get away with it. All the calculation guesses I read so far assume that the leak is spitting out 100% oil, and I don't see that as a constant. Perhaps it even varies between the ration of gases and oil out over time.
I perfer to calculate the number of barrels leaking per day based on how much of a fine that should imposed on BP. I think they should be fined 40 billion dollars. So lets say they stop the leak on August 15. Thats 115 days from April 20th. That means they need to be fined about 344 million dollars a day. At a fine of $4300 dollars a barrel, the leak needs to be 80,000 barrlels a day to get 40 billion dollars. So that my scientifics guess, 80,000 barrlels a day. Of course the fine does not include the cost of cleanup, lost wages, fines from the wildlife, and future cleanup costs.
The well structure is compromised, Both BP & Washington both know it. Read the June 12ths report at the bottom. This is why they need relief wells people. They CAN'T stop it. Be informed and stop listening to all the propaganda know it all's.
perfectservicesco.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderfiles/bp.pdf
I suspect that they're still lying. At 2 barrels per second X 60 seconds X 60 minutes = 7200 barrels per hour.
7200 barrels per hour X 24 hours = 172,800 barrels per day. 172,800 55-gallon barrels = 9,504,000 gallons per day
Even if you cut the flow rate in half to one barrel per second, you're still getting 4,752,000 gallons per day choking the life out of the Gulf. And out of all that oil escaping, they calim to be capturing , what about, 19,000 barrels per day. Not a terribly good showing so far as I can tell.
So, once again, it appears we're being lied to and the true extent of the Holocaust is as yet unknown, at least to us "small people" out here.
I know this is going to be hard to hear, but the truth needs to be released. The reason the well is STILL leaking is because they cannot stop the leak. The leak you see at the top of the BOP is not the biggest issue. The pipe is broken below the sea floor. There is only one way to stop the leak is for relief wells to be completed before the oil that is leaking behind the well piping erodes the walls of the well down to the oil deposit. If this happens the entire deposit of 2.5 BILLION barrels will leak into the Gulf. Do you really think they can't stop a leak at the top of the BOP? Of course they can but if they do the leak below the seafloor will blow out the earth around the pipe much faster and will reach the depsoit before the relief wells are complete. 2.5 Billion barrels will destroy every living creature in the gulf and will spread oil across teh globe. Sorry for the reality check. God be with all of us.
JP
I know this is going to be hard to hear, but the truth needs to be released. The reason the well is STILL leaking is because they cannot stop the leak. The leak you see at the top of the BOP is not the biggest issue. The pipe is broken below the sea floor. There is only one way to stop the leak is for relief wells to be completed before the oil that is leaking behind the well piping erodes the walls of the well down to the oil deposit. If this happens the entire deposit of 2.5 BILLION barrels will leak into the Gulf. Do you really think they can't stop a leak at the top of the BOP? Of course they can but if they do the leak below the seafloor will blow out the earth around the pipe much faster and will reach the depsoit before the relief wells are complete. 2.5 Billion barrels will destroy every living creature in the gulf and will spread oil across teh globe. Sorry for the reality check. God be with all of us.
Lies lies lies. From day one this company has tried to side step it's criminal actions.
Put them all in jail. And bankrupt them so they can't do business again in the Gulf.
We can do without these kinds of Enrons, Exxons, etc.
Talking about oil spill? Read this: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/05/opinion/05iht-edejikeme.html.
You will know and see what is going on behind close door.
i'm so sick of seeing Hayward's face on the news he almost reminds me of Bean, total retard
I would like to see more coverage of the media blackout that BP & our government are still imposing according to an Associated Press letter sent to President Obama and made public just yesterday. Youtube has several videos of reporters being harassed and threatened by BP security, why does CNN remain silent about this. It seems like we're only seeing what they want us to see.
What will happen if this leakage will not be stopped?
Could this extinct humans eventually if there will be no ocean left?
I am not an expert, but if this spill continues, the ocean eventually will be completed filled with oil.
Anyone knows what would happen to the drinking water?
I kin andswer ur kwestshun Ravi, once I am be done from crying in front of those congressman so mean! They ask me such hard question I no understand becaz they are too hard to know since it iz so darks under the see. PhredHead, I am shur glad that Dick still isn't around. I know that he wud just shoot rifal at me and call it good. Peeple dont understand how hard dis problam iz tew fix. You can not cork just put down ther. Oil coming out all over becaz pipe broken can't be fixed by robots who are driven by tiny trolls.
One thing I wants to know is why congressman in U S of amereeca be so angry with mee at hearing. I don't know how tew dreel da weel. No won even towld me that we had oil wells so far down. I kin not stone well infos that I don't know. So hows can they say I don't know wut is gowing on.
Oh yes, Ravi I will ask BP when I see him next how mcuh we are makin from dis party. I can give you a rough estenate uv hao mush oil is coming out. We only seemed to get a few gallons in a day becaz of our sub contractors who were sitting arownd twiddling thumbs and not dewing der job.
I am start not becoming sorry for causing disaster becaz peepl in congress in states of united be so meen to me and make me cry cause they blame me fer keeling all of the fishes that they like tew katch. I reely think that if dey call eet a brown 2can it looks betur if it really is brown. you know?
Rvi's hitting paydirt. The issue simply is that BP (and ALL the other oilboys) are probably lying as to the extent of oil extraction out of the Gulf. The motivation ..royalties (simply SLASHING royalties). I do not believe ANYBODY is auditing the source of gas at the pump. We may have a lot more GULF gas than we are made to believe.!!
Ravi: Can somebody ask BP, How much oil the Company was extracting before the Disaster? This will at least provide the rough estimate which may be closer to the reality.