August 27th, 2011
04:20 PM ET

Hurricane Irene: What you can expect on Sunday, beyond

[Updated, 11:18 p.m. ET Saturday] Irene made landfall about 7:30 this morning on the Outer Banks as a Category 1 hurricane, with sustained 85 mph winds.

The center of Irene is moving north through the Pamlico Sound and will exit the North Carolina/Virginia coast near or over Virginia Beach back into the Atlantic Ocean late this afternoon.

The storm will then rake the Northeast from Virginia to Maine as it hugs the coastline.  Storm surge will be worst to the east of where the storm makes landfall.

Here's what to expect in selected cities:

- Norfolk, Virginia: City is in the worst weather now with winds diminishing after midnight.

- Washington: Expect tropical storm force winds in next few hours. Expect worst winds from 4 a.m. to  7 a.m. No hurricane force winds expected.

- Atlantic City, New Jersey: Already experiencing tropical storm force winds. Worst winds should be 4 a.m. to 10 a.m. with hurricane force winds likely. Landfall possible around 8 a.m.

- Philadelphia:  Watch for tropical storm force winds after midnight. Worst weather should be 5 a.m. to 9 a.m.  Hurricane force gusts are possible.

- New York City/Long Island: Tropical storm force winds 4 a.m. to 6 a.m. Worst winds should be 9 a.m. to 2 p.m. with hurricane force winds possible. The center of Irene should pass just east or over the city around 11 a.m.  The strongest hurricane force winds will be over eastern Long Island.

- Providence, Rhode Island: Tropical storm force winds should arrive around 7 a.m . Expect the worst winds noon to 5 p.m. with hurricane winds likely.

- Boston: Tropical storm force winds should arrive around 2 p.m. The worst of the storm should be 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. with hurricane force winds possible.

- Canada: The center of the weather system should enter Canada by 8 a.m. Monday.

Here is what to expect in the coming hours:

- Irene will begin to accelerate north/northeastward and hug the Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey coastlines, bringing hurricane force winds, storm surge and flooding rains to the region.

- Irene continues to be a very large hurricane.  From north to south, the cloud field extends over 1,600 miles or around the distance from Denver to New York City.  Outer bands from the storm have already reached New York and Boston.  Tropical storm force winds extend out over 260 miles, and hurricane force winds extend out over 90 miles from Irene’s center.

- With the path of Irene, hurricane force winds are possible in the major metro areas of Philadelphia, New York and Boston.  Tropical storm force winds are possible in Washington.

- Widespread power outages are already reported in eastern North Carolina and those will be moving northward today and tomorrow.

- The dangers from Irene will spread well inland.  Not only will high winds knock down trees and power lines, but extremely heavy rains of more than 1 foot will fall on already saturated ground from the Mid-Atlantic though the Canadian Maritimes.  The flood threat could be the greatest threat from Irene in the end.

- The front right quadrant is the most dangerous part of the storm.  It is where the highest wind and highest storm surge are expected.  The worst conditions are expected from the center of the storm to around a 100 miles east of the track.

- Based on the current track, Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts appear to be at greatest risk of damage.

- New York City will be close to the eventual path of Irene.  Storm surge flooding and hurricane force winds are still possible Sunday.

[Updated, 10:30 p.m. ET Friday] Irene is a very large hurricane Friday evening bearing down on the Carolina coast.  Maximum sustained winds have remained 100 mph, and there will likely be little change in intensity before the storm makes landfall on Saturday morning between Morehead City and Hatteras, North Carolina.

The storm will then head toward the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  Irene is forecast to be a hurricane as it approaches or moves over the major metropolitan area of the Northeast.  A HAZUS computer model that computes how many people will be affected by the storm forecasts that more than 40 million people will experience winds that could do damage (50 mph or greater) .

Widespread power outages, storm surge damage east of where the center makes landfall, along with catastrophic flooding are all possible Friday night through the weekend.

- Irene is steadily marching to the Carolina Coast.  The outer bands of Irene are already pounding the coast of both South and North Carolina.

- Early Saturday morning the core or center of dangerous Irene will approach the North Carolina coast.  Landfall is expected between 6 a.m. and 9 a.m. on the southern Outer Banks with maximum sustained winds at 100 mph or higher.

- By late Saturday the storm will be accelerating to the north.  The center is expected to hug the coast and will bring hurricane force winds over a large swath from Virginia all the way up into Maine.

- Irene is a large hurricane, so hurricane force winds are expected to spread along the coast all the way from Virginia into Maine from late Saturday through the day on Sunday.

- Since the storm is so large, the tropical storm force winds extend out nearly 250 miles from the center, so tropical storm winds will extend well inland.

- Irene could very possibly pass right over or near enough that hurricane force winds could move over the major metro areas of Philadelphia, New York and Boston.  Damage could be widespread in and around these cities. Sustained winds of 80 mph, with higher gusts, are possible.

- Widespread power outages, downed trees and power lines are expected over a large section of the Northeast.

- Historically, inland flooding is one of the greatest if not the greatest threat.  More than a foot of rain is expected over parts of the Northeast on top of what has been the wettest August on record for many locations.  Catastrophic flooding is possible over a large area.

- Travel is already being disrupted in the Northeast and that will only get worse as we head through time.  Many major metro areas are already proactively planning complete shutdowns of their transit systems on Sunday.  All five major New York area airports are closing to arriving flights at noon on Saturday

Expected closest pass to some major cities:  (Note this is when the worst is expected. Conditions will be deteriorating well in advance of these times and will last for hours after.)

- Morehead City, North Carolina  – 3 a.m. to 9 a.m. Saturday (Irene will make landfall around 7 a.m. over the southern Outer Banks)

- Virginia Beach/Norfolk, Virginia – 4 p.m. to 10 p.m. Saturday

- Washington – 2 a.m. to 8 a.m. Sunday

- Atlantic City, New Jersey– 4 a.m. – 10 a.m. Sunday

- Philadelphia – 4 a.m. to 10 a.m. Sunday

- New York –  8 a.m. to 2 p.m. Sunday

- Boston– 2 p.m. to 8 p.m. Sunday

- Storm center is completely out of the United States into Canada by 8 a.m. Monday

[3:59 p.m.] Irene will spin off the coast of South Carolina today. Outer bands from the storm are reaching the Carolina coasts now and will bring gusty winds, heavy rain and dangerous surf.

On Saturday the core or center of Irene will approach the North Carolina coast. Conditions will be deteriorating from late tonight into the morning. Landfall is now expected by mid- to late- morning near Morehead City or the Outer Banks.

By late Saturday the storm will be accelerating to the north. The center is expected to hug the coast and will bring hurricane force winds over a large swath from Virginia all the way up into Maine.

The worst of the storm surge and winds will be just east of the center. With the storm moving so close to the coast, a secondary landfall location is hard to forecast, and could occur anywhere from Virginia to Massachusetts.
Irene could very possibly pass right over or near enough that hurricane force winds could move over the major metro areas of Philadelphia, NYC, and Boston. Damage could be widespread around these cities with possible sustained winds of 80 mph, and higher gusts possible.

Widespread power outages, downed trees and power lines are expected over a large section of the Northeast.
Historically inland flooding is one of the greatest if not the greatest threat. Over a foot of rain is expected over parts of the Northeast on top of what has been the wettest August on record for many locations. Catastrophic flooding is possible over a large area.

Travel will be severely disrupted starting tonight. The New York City metro transit system may shut down entirely, along with many other major metro systems bringing travel to a standstill in some locations. Amtrak trains will be severely impacted or canceled. Major airports in Washington, Philadelphia, New York, and Boston will likely close for a time on Sunday. If storm surge flooding occurs in NYC, LaGuardia and JFK airports are in the evacuation zones and could flood.

The hurricane is expected to closely pass these major cities at the following times: (Note: These are the times when the worst is expected. Conditions will be deteriorating well in advance of these times and will last four hours afterward.)

Morehead City, North Carolina: 6 a.m. – 2 p.m. Saturday (Irene will likely make landfall here or just north around 8 a.m.)

Virginia Beach/Norfolk, Virginia:– 4 p.m. to 10 p.m. Saturday evening

Washington: 4 a.m. – 10 a.m. Sunday morning

Atlantic City, New Jersey: 5 a.m. – 11 a.m. Sunday morning

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: 6am – Noon Sunday

New York, New York: 8 a.m. to mid afternoon Sunday

Boston, Massachusetts: 5 p.m. to midnight Sunday

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Filed under: Flooding • Hurricanes • Weather
soundoff (177 Responses)
  1. Me

    To "justSayin", get some help.

    August 26, 2011 at 4:55 pm | Report abuse |
  2. demaj

    It amazes me that in one breath you talk about a msg from God and in the next your only concern is whether someone voted for President Obama (considering if you believe that God is in control of everything Obama is in office by divine order). I pray that the impact is manageable by our 1st responders and I pray for their safety.

    August 26, 2011 at 4:57 pm | Report abuse |
  3. Me Myself

    To "JustSayin", you are silly. "nuff said.

    August 26, 2011 at 4:57 pm | Report abuse |
  4. Me Myself

    If anything even remotely "positive" about this impending disaster, it just goes to show that no matter how arrogant, and "know it all" humankind becomes (irregardless of "religion" per se, just a Universalism of the Unknown/Greater Power), we are unltimtely NOT in charge.

    Have respect for Nature sometimes, to the folks who do not.

    August 26, 2011 at 5:00 pm | Report abuse |
  5. Amersfoort

    Messag from Amersfoort in Holland/The Netherlands: Good luck to all of you in east coast!!!

    August 26, 2011 at 5:07 pm | Report abuse |
    • Cacol

      Thank you. Your kind thoughts are apprciated.

      August 26, 2011 at 5:14 pm | Report abuse |
    • makingcents

      Thank you.

      August 26, 2011 at 5:21 pm | Report abuse |
    • Amersfoort

      "Cacol" and "Makingcents": hello, where do you live in america? Are you worried about this hurricane?
      email me about anything: hotter_meel@hotmail.com
      Greetings from the Netherlands.

      August 26, 2011 at 5:31 pm | Report abuse |
  6. justathought

    =========What is this? A little ole storm preempting Gaddafi? He must be getting his feelings hurt!

    August 26, 2011 at 5:07 pm | Report abuse |
  7. Tanvi Shah

    Does anybody notice the coincidence? Katrina, 2005. People were told to evacuate on Friday. Levees broke Monday, August 29. Irene coming same weekend. Monday is August 29.

    August 26, 2011 at 5:07 pm | Report abuse |
    • JM

      Good catch. Watch what happens Monday into Tuesday. For anyone into Calleman's research, Tuesday is "end of night 5 (destruction) and beginning of day 6 (flowering), which lasts through September 19."

      August 26, 2011 at 5:48 pm | Report abuse |
  8. vloplame

    Every discussion turns into a right vs left egg throw. It was not always like this. We are being manipulated.

    August 26, 2011 at 5:08 pm | Report abuse |
    • ChaosSix

      "We are being manipulated" is a way of saying that someone else is to blame for our failure to be critical-thinking, rational human beings. If you know that a element of the news media (Village Voice, Fox News) is biased, then you can evaluate their reporting appropriately.

      August 26, 2011 at 5:30 pm | Report abuse |
  9. ZionGene

    Why did we not seriously consider sending cruise missiles into a North Korean city? A bully avoids bullying a bully. Gadaffi and his people are easy pushovers. It does not take Pat Robinson to see that the payoff, of the city of London riots and the American East gigantic storm comes from the hand of God.

    August 26, 2011 at 5:10 pm | Report abuse |
  10. TaxiDan

    Nut Job Alert!

    August 26, 2011 at 5:12 pm | Report abuse |
  11. Valerie

    Why don't the news reports about the hurricance speak about Connecticut? Always New York and Boston!!

    August 26, 2011 at 5:14 pm | Report abuse |
    • E

      Who?

      August 26, 2011 at 5:24 pm | Report abuse |
    • Jan

      How do you think I feel? I'm in RI.

      August 26, 2011 at 5:50 pm | Report abuse |
  12. Nicole

    Best of luck to everyone about to endure Irene. After living on the gulf coast and having my share of hurricane experiences, my heart goes out to each one of you! PLEASE heed the warnings and be safe.

    August 26, 2011 at 5:16 pm | Report abuse |
  13. A.W.Messenger

    "BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES!"

    August 26, 2011 at 5:18 pm | Report abuse |
  14. DanielsVoice

    This is ALL about GLOBAL WARMING. We are being tormented because we use too many aerosols and we've killed the rain forests. This is what we get!!

    August 26, 2011 at 5:20 pm | Report abuse |
    • Mother Earth

      No, it's because you touch yourself at night.

      August 26, 2011 at 5:59 pm | Report abuse |
  15. Him A Cain

    The religious nuts always come out in a storm!!!

    August 26, 2011 at 5:22 pm | Report abuse |
    • MEG

      AMEN BROTHER! FANATICS CRAWL OUT UNDER THEIR BIBLES AND EVEN BLAME GOD..HURRICANES AND NATURAL DISATERS ARENT FROM HIM! BE SAFE EVERYONE AND I PRAY FOR YOUR SAFETY

      August 26, 2011 at 9:15 pm | Report abuse |
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