August 27th, 2011
04:20 PM ET

Hurricane Irene: What you can expect on Sunday, beyond

[Updated, 11:18 p.m. ET Saturday] Irene made landfall about 7:30 this morning on the Outer Banks as a Category 1 hurricane, with sustained 85 mph winds.

The center of Irene is moving north through the Pamlico Sound and will exit the North Carolina/Virginia coast near or over Virginia Beach back into the Atlantic Ocean late this afternoon.

The storm will then rake the Northeast from Virginia to Maine as it hugs the coastline.  Storm surge will be worst to the east of where the storm makes landfall.

Here's what to expect in selected cities:

- Norfolk, Virginia: City is in the worst weather now with winds diminishing after midnight.

- Washington: Expect tropical storm force winds in next few hours. Expect worst winds from 4 a.m. to  7 a.m. No hurricane force winds expected.

- Atlantic City, New Jersey: Already experiencing tropical storm force winds. Worst winds should be 4 a.m. to 10 a.m. with hurricane force winds likely. Landfall possible around 8 a.m.

- Philadelphia:  Watch for tropical storm force winds after midnight. Worst weather should be 5 a.m. to 9 a.m.  Hurricane force gusts are possible.

- New York City/Long Island: Tropical storm force winds 4 a.m. to 6 a.m. Worst winds should be 9 a.m. to 2 p.m. with hurricane force winds possible. The center of Irene should pass just east or over the city around 11 a.m.  The strongest hurricane force winds will be over eastern Long Island.

- Providence, Rhode Island: Tropical storm force winds should arrive around 7 a.m . Expect the worst winds noon to 5 p.m. with hurricane winds likely.

- Boston: Tropical storm force winds should arrive around 2 p.m. The worst of the storm should be 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. with hurricane force winds possible.

- Canada: The center of the weather system should enter Canada by 8 a.m. Monday.

Here is what to expect in the coming hours:

- Irene will begin to accelerate north/northeastward and hug the Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey coastlines, bringing hurricane force winds, storm surge and flooding rains to the region.

- Irene continues to be a very large hurricane.  From north to south, the cloud field extends over 1,600 miles or around the distance from Denver to New York City.  Outer bands from the storm have already reached New York and Boston.  Tropical storm force winds extend out over 260 miles, and hurricane force winds extend out over 90 miles from Irene’s center.

- With the path of Irene, hurricane force winds are possible in the major metro areas of Philadelphia, New York and Boston.  Tropical storm force winds are possible in Washington.

- Widespread power outages are already reported in eastern North Carolina and those will be moving northward today and tomorrow.

- The dangers from Irene will spread well inland.  Not only will high winds knock down trees and power lines, but extremely heavy rains of more than 1 foot will fall on already saturated ground from the Mid-Atlantic though the Canadian Maritimes.  The flood threat could be the greatest threat from Irene in the end.

- The front right quadrant is the most dangerous part of the storm.  It is where the highest wind and highest storm surge are expected.  The worst conditions are expected from the center of the storm to around a 100 miles east of the track.

- Based on the current track, Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts appear to be at greatest risk of damage.

- New York City will be close to the eventual path of Irene.  Storm surge flooding and hurricane force winds are still possible Sunday.

[Updated, 10:30 p.m. ET Friday] Irene is a very large hurricane Friday evening bearing down on the Carolina coast.  Maximum sustained winds have remained 100 mph, and there will likely be little change in intensity before the storm makes landfall on Saturday morning between Morehead City and Hatteras, North Carolina.

The storm will then head toward the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  Irene is forecast to be a hurricane as it approaches or moves over the major metropolitan area of the Northeast.  A HAZUS computer model that computes how many people will be affected by the storm forecasts that more than 40 million people will experience winds that could do damage (50 mph or greater) .

Widespread power outages, storm surge damage east of where the center makes landfall, along with catastrophic flooding are all possible Friday night through the weekend.

- Irene is steadily marching to the Carolina Coast.  The outer bands of Irene are already pounding the coast of both South and North Carolina.

- Early Saturday morning the core or center of dangerous Irene will approach the North Carolina coast.  Landfall is expected between 6 a.m. and 9 a.m. on the southern Outer Banks with maximum sustained winds at 100 mph or higher.

- By late Saturday the storm will be accelerating to the north.  The center is expected to hug the coast and will bring hurricane force winds over a large swath from Virginia all the way up into Maine.

- Irene is a large hurricane, so hurricane force winds are expected to spread along the coast all the way from Virginia into Maine from late Saturday through the day on Sunday.

- Since the storm is so large, the tropical storm force winds extend out nearly 250 miles from the center, so tropical storm winds will extend well inland.

- Irene could very possibly pass right over or near enough that hurricane force winds could move over the major metro areas of Philadelphia, New York and Boston.  Damage could be widespread in and around these cities. Sustained winds of 80 mph, with higher gusts, are possible.

- Widespread power outages, downed trees and power lines are expected over a large section of the Northeast.

- Historically, inland flooding is one of the greatest if not the greatest threat.  More than a foot of rain is expected over parts of the Northeast on top of what has been the wettest August on record for many locations.  Catastrophic flooding is possible over a large area.

- Travel is already being disrupted in the Northeast and that will only get worse as we head through time.  Many major metro areas are already proactively planning complete shutdowns of their transit systems on Sunday.  All five major New York area airports are closing to arriving flights at noon on Saturday

Expected closest pass to some major cities:  (Note this is when the worst is expected. Conditions will be deteriorating well in advance of these times and will last for hours after.)

- Morehead City, North Carolina  – 3 a.m. to 9 a.m. Saturday (Irene will make landfall around 7 a.m. over the southern Outer Banks)

- Virginia Beach/Norfolk, Virginia – 4 p.m. to 10 p.m. Saturday

- Washington – 2 a.m. to 8 a.m. Sunday

- Atlantic City, New Jersey– 4 a.m. – 10 a.m. Sunday

- Philadelphia – 4 a.m. to 10 a.m. Sunday

- New York –  8 a.m. to 2 p.m. Sunday

- Boston– 2 p.m. to 8 p.m. Sunday

- Storm center is completely out of the United States into Canada by 8 a.m. Monday

[3:59 p.m.] Irene will spin off the coast of South Carolina today. Outer bands from the storm are reaching the Carolina coasts now and will bring gusty winds, heavy rain and dangerous surf.

On Saturday the core or center of Irene will approach the North Carolina coast. Conditions will be deteriorating from late tonight into the morning. Landfall is now expected by mid- to late- morning near Morehead City or the Outer Banks.

By late Saturday the storm will be accelerating to the north. The center is expected to hug the coast and will bring hurricane force winds over a large swath from Virginia all the way up into Maine.

The worst of the storm surge and winds will be just east of the center. With the storm moving so close to the coast, a secondary landfall location is hard to forecast, and could occur anywhere from Virginia to Massachusetts.
Irene could very possibly pass right over or near enough that hurricane force winds could move over the major metro areas of Philadelphia, NYC, and Boston. Damage could be widespread around these cities with possible sustained winds of 80 mph, and higher gusts possible.

Widespread power outages, downed trees and power lines are expected over a large section of the Northeast.
Historically inland flooding is one of the greatest if not the greatest threat. Over a foot of rain is expected over parts of the Northeast on top of what has been the wettest August on record for many locations. Catastrophic flooding is possible over a large area.

Travel will be severely disrupted starting tonight. The New York City metro transit system may shut down entirely, along with many other major metro systems bringing travel to a standstill in some locations. Amtrak trains will be severely impacted or canceled. Major airports in Washington, Philadelphia, New York, and Boston will likely close for a time on Sunday. If storm surge flooding occurs in NYC, LaGuardia and JFK airports are in the evacuation zones and could flood.

The hurricane is expected to closely pass these major cities at the following times: (Note: These are the times when the worst is expected. Conditions will be deteriorating well in advance of these times and will last four hours afterward.)

Morehead City, North Carolina: 6 a.m. – 2 p.m. Saturday (Irene will likely make landfall here or just north around 8 a.m.)

Virginia Beach/Norfolk, Virginia:– 4 p.m. to 10 p.m. Saturday evening

Washington: 4 a.m. – 10 a.m. Sunday morning

Atlantic City, New Jersey: 5 a.m. – 11 a.m. Sunday morning

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: 6am – Noon Sunday

New York, New York: 8 a.m. to mid afternoon Sunday

Boston, Massachusetts: 5 p.m. to midnight Sunday

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Filed under: Flooding • Hurricanes • Weather
soundoff (177 Responses)
  1. Car316

    God does not cause war .... people do. God does not cause natural disasters .... nature does.

    August 26, 2011 at 5:24 pm | Report abuse |
    • indbman

      Nature IS God and God IS nature.

      August 26, 2011 at 9:31 pm | Report abuse |
  2. Brittany

    Has anyone thought about moving the trashcans on the streets in NYC? They could be quite dangerous if propelled by the heavy winds.

    August 26, 2011 at 5:24 pm | Report abuse |
    • safetydude58

      Blue Collar comedian Ron White said it best:

      "it's not THAT the wind is blowing 70 miles per hour...it's WHAT the wind is blowing 70 miles per hour."

      August 26, 2011 at 5:53 pm | Report abuse |
  3. Cynthia

    First, a reminder. Bush vacationed during Katrina, the middle eat crisis and was reluctant to leave his trip after the towers were hit. Bush vacationed MORE than any other sitting President, he had vacation more than 120 days during the same period Obama has vacationed about 60 days. The idea that comparing Presidents, without even being correct, instead of sending hope and wishing for the best for people in the path of Irene. I am a New Englander at heart, leaving only because of family, many family still there for generations. My love and any needed support is sent their way.

    August 26, 2011 at 5:30 pm | Report abuse |
  4. Stevie

    All these yankees need to chill out. Hurricanes happen every single year. Just because somebody said Irene MIGHT hit New York, doesn't make it definite....Or make New York in anyway relevant to hurricane season.

    August 26, 2011 at 5:33 pm | Report abuse |
  5. PAPER GRAIN...

    LOL

    August 26, 2011 at 5:38 pm | Report abuse |
  6. Amersfoort

    Hello, where do you live in america? Are you worried about this hurricane?
    email me about anything: hotter_meel@hotmail.com
    Greetings from the Netherlands.

    August 26, 2011 at 5:41 pm | Report abuse |
  7. St. Louis, MO

    Put politics aside, seriously. Disasters can strike anywhere, so try to empathize with the fears and worries of those in the storm's path. Here's to hoping the storm isn't as bad as it might be. Good luck to those living in NC, VA, PN, NJ, NY, CN, RI and Mass. and anyone else impacted by the storm.

    August 26, 2011 at 5:43 pm | Report abuse |
  8. PAPER GRAIN...

    yes I am the hottest rapper alive....PAPER GRAIN...represents from the Netherlands to St. Louis Mo where people are somewhat evolved...

    August 26, 2011 at 5:47 pm | Report abuse |
    • spiralbrain

      Well that wasn't part of Perrys prayer-fest, so no hurricane for you (or rain for that matter).

      August 26, 2011 at 6:44 pm | Report abuse |
  9. WDinDallas

    Dang, we need that Hurricane in Texas to put out the fires.

    August 26, 2011 at 5:54 pm | Report abuse |
  10. Tom

    [youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJn261UAdaA&w=640&h=390]

    August 26, 2011 at 6:00 pm | Report abuse |
    • Tribaltech

      Way to go fool!!! People here are panicking about whether to evacuate or not..and then you go ahead and post this apocalypse video.....hahaha idk why but I find it funny and darkly ironic at the same time.

      August 26, 2011 at 6:22 pm | Report abuse |
  11. Ken

    No human being is responsible for a hurricane silly people, it's an act of nature. Bush was no more responsible than Obama is now. As for who has taken the most vacations-Obama has done quite well for himself every time we turn around he's on vacation, not that any President is ever truly on vacation. @Chaos6: all news media is biased one way or the other, there are no exceptions to that. BTW still waiting for FEMA in Joplin, most of the people here are still living in tents with winter coming on soon.

    August 26, 2011 at 6:04 pm | Report abuse |
    • Big Spender

      No this hurricane is not an act from nature its an act of God, When are you people going to learn this, God controls nature.

      August 26, 2011 at 6:15 pm | Report abuse |
  12. Ken

    Speaking of Joplin Obama was on vacation in Ireland then also after which he went to rub elbows with the Queen.

    August 26, 2011 at 6:07 pm | Report abuse |
    • Wulf

      Never mind that he visited the Alabama damage first hand...Obama could cr@p gold and people would still complain.

      August 26, 2011 at 6:42 pm | Report abuse |
  13. gung hoe

    Some people are pathetic comparing vacation days between gw and obama is like comparing day to night G W went to crawford to his ranch the tgxpayers didnt get hooked for a bill for G w s stay at crawford Unlike obamas wonderful world tours the man has some great taste when its on our dime 50 000 00 a week rent at marthas vinyard 0 dollars week crawford take ur choice

    August 26, 2011 at 6:13 pm | Report abuse |
  14. Yeah Right

    Why will there be GAS SPIKES?! No one will be driving? They find any excuse to raise the price of gas. Give us a break!

    August 26, 2011 at 6:15 pm | Report abuse |
  15. Angelika Irene Bertrand

    why people live in such states bejond me<

    August 26, 2011 at 6:17 pm | Report abuse |
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