Hurricane forecasters raise 2012 predictions
Hurricane Irene rages on August 25 in the Caribbean Sea.
June 1st, 2012
02:07 PM ET

Hurricane forecasters raise 2012 predictions

On the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters at Colorado State University have increased their predictions for the number of named storms for the year but are still predicting a below-average number of storms.

Philip Klotzbach and William Gray of Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Science are predicting 13 named tropical storms for the season, an increase of three from their forecast released in April. They say five of those storms will be hurricanes (with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or above), an increase from four hurricanes in their April forecast.

The forecast for a major hurricane, a Category 3, 4 or 5 storm with winds well above 100 mph, remains at two.

The probability of one major hurricane hitting any part of the U.S. coastline is 48%, they said. The average for the past century has been 52%.

The CSU forecasters note that the two May tropical storms we've seen this year, Alberto and Beryl, are included among the 13 predicted for the season. They said the fact that 2012 has seen two storms doesn't portend anything for the rest of the year.

"Pre-1 June activity has very little bearing on the rest of the hurricane season. The only two seasons on record with two named storms prior to 1 June were 1887 and 1908. While 1887 was a very active season, 1908 had average levels of activity. The last season with a U.S. landfall prior to 1 June was 1976, which was a relatively quiet season," the forecasters said.

On May 24, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced that it expected a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with nine to 15 named storms and four to eight hurricanes. NOAA expects one to three of the hurricanes to be major ones.

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Filed under: Hurricanes • Tropical weather • Weather
soundoff (105 Responses)
  1. fulofsht

    Like I Have Always Said. A Lot Of People Making A Living Off Of Something We will Never Be Able To Predict Or Control.

    June 1, 2012 at 8:51 pm | Report abuse |
  2. Bigethekid

    Turn off your TVs and computers , if you dont like. Who cares if you want to sit in the dark. I like what they do. And if you work out at sea, you would think twice before stepping on board. Food for thought

    June 1, 2012 at 11:28 pm | Report abuse |
  3. peppy

    Forecasters at Colorado State University? Predicting Hurricanes off the Coast?? No offense, but who the Hell are you guys? Lived all my life in Florida, and now all of a sudden, I'm hearing about you guys with YOUR predictions of Hurricanes? Chances are 75% of you guys have never seen an Ocean...Give me a frickin break. This is like comparing Apples with....Motorcycle helmets....Sheesh!!

    June 2, 2012 at 5:04 pm | Report abuse |
    • Jacques Strappe, World Famous French Ball Juggler

      Why would you hae to live by an ocean to predict weather patterns?

      June 5, 2012 at 9:47 am | Report abuse |
    • A

      Seriously? Because you live in Florida, you think you have a better understanding of tropical dynamics than trained and accomplished scientists? CSU is highly respected nationwide for their tropical meteorology research. Just go ask the scientists at your Florida universities, like Miami or FSU. They'll tell you.

      June 5, 2012 at 3:33 pm | Report abuse |
  4. Badger

    Adjusting season predictions by including events outside the official forecast date range (Alberto and Beryl) is complete nonsense. That's just an attempt to include known events into a prediction in order to increase accuracy in the final results.

    June 3, 2012 at 11:34 am | Report abuse |
  5. Kyle

    The article is misleading, the mean from 1950 – 2011 on named storms is 11, 13 named is slightly above average.

    The year that Hurricane Floyd happened only had 13 named storms, for example.

    June 4, 2012 at 10:12 am | Report abuse |
  6. Carl Bystrom

    The picture of Hurricane Irene is in the Atlantic Ocean, not the Caribbean Sea.

    June 4, 2012 at 12:39 pm | Report abuse |
  7. A

    These guys are NOT representative of CSU's Atmos Sci department, and I'm really tired of hearing about them.

    June 5, 2012 at 3:30 pm | Report abuse |
  8. Brandy

    Fascinated with hurricanes and their power. Hoping my degree in Emergency Management and Disaster Planning will help thousands of people in the future. The one good thing about hurricanes is that you have a lot of warning ahead of the storm. Will be tracking the 2012 season.

    August 4, 2012 at 8:48 pm | Report abuse |
    • brandy

      This may be greater or less than katrina.. You never know till it hits unless?

      August 27, 2012 at 8:07 am | Report abuse |
  9. Felicia 123

    Why are we listening to people at Colorado State University?

    August 25, 2012 at 2:23 pm | Report abuse |
  10. pattylynnbrooks

    EVERYBODY CALM DOWN....LOL......relax, Time will tell ...who knows what...

    September 1, 2012 at 10:50 pm | Report abuse |
  11. Muhammad Kamran Tariq

    I want to go New York on 8 th November, will this hurricane be over till then , plz reply

    October 29, 2012 at 1:18 pm | Report abuse |
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