Hurricane forecasters raise 2012 predictions
Hurricane Irene rages on August 25 in the Caribbean Sea.
June 1st, 2012
02:07 PM ET

Hurricane forecasters raise 2012 predictions

On the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters at Colorado State University have increased their predictions for the number of named storms for the year but are still predicting a below-average number of storms.

Philip Klotzbach and William Gray of Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Science are predicting 13 named tropical storms for the season, an increase of three from their forecast released in April. They say five of those storms will be hurricanes (with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or above), an increase from four hurricanes in their April forecast.

The forecast for a major hurricane, a Category 3, 4 or 5 storm with winds well above 100 mph, remains at two.

The probability of one major hurricane hitting any part of the U.S. coastline is 48%, they said. The average for the past century has been 52%.

The CSU forecasters note that the two May tropical storms we've seen this year, Alberto and Beryl, are included among the 13 predicted for the season. They said the fact that 2012 has seen two storms doesn't portend anything for the rest of the year.

"Pre-1 June activity has very little bearing on the rest of the hurricane season. The only two seasons on record with two named storms prior to 1 June were 1887 and 1908. While 1887 was a very active season, 1908 had average levels of activity. The last season with a U.S. landfall prior to 1 June was 1976, which was a relatively quiet season," the forecasters said.

On May 24, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced that it expected a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with nine to 15 named storms and four to eight hurricanes. NOAA expects one to three of the hurricanes to be major ones.

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Filed under: Hurricanes • Tropical weather • Weather
soundoff (105 Responses)
  1. Charlie

    Darn that Global Warming. Fewer Hurricanes of less intensity.

    June 1, 2012 at 2:25 pm | Report abuse |
  2. Scottish Mama

    We shall see. Let us see if the tsunamis, tornato's, earthquakes and melting ice happens more or less.

    June 1, 2012 at 2:30 pm | Report abuse |
  3. bobcat (in a hat)©,

    They changed the forecast because we had two named storms before the season even started.
    Yo. You don't know sh-t. It's going to do what it's going to do. We in the way of these things know how to prepare.

    June 1, 2012 at 2:32 pm | Report abuse |
  4. tonybalogna

    What kinda prediction is it if they change it after storms.....thats like saying....today...I predict the Giants will win Superbowl XLVI against the Patriots....just sayin!

    June 1, 2012 at 2:34 pm | Report abuse |
  5. anon

    "but are still predicting a below-average number of storms." – end.

    June 1, 2012 at 2:36 pm | Report abuse |
  6. ipmutt

    Mainstream media is again hiding the disaster economic news about Obama. He is sinking the country and mainstream media will not tell you. Do not take this from these guys. go somewhere else to get the truth,

    June 1, 2012 at 2:39 pm | Report abuse |
    • Scottish Mama

      It could not be that the filibusters used by the minority republicans in the senate and the republican congress are holding things up could it. Like an Obama jobs bill? Hmmmmmmmmmmm

      June 1, 2012 at 2:44 pm | Report abuse |
  7. Scottish Mama

    This just in- Zimmermans bond revoked................

    June 1, 2012 at 2:41 pm | Report abuse |
  8. Saiddone

    These guys have been horribly wrong in the past, so take it with a grain of salt.

    June 1, 2012 at 2:43 pm | Report abuse |
  9. background

    My favorite CNN headline ever was two years ago.
    "Scientists predict a 50% chance of a greater than average Hurricane season."

    Way to fear being wrong....

    June 1, 2012 at 2:44 pm | Report abuse |
  10. Mike

    It seems as more storms come they will raise the prediction and as less storms come they will lower it. In conclusion...We have no idea how many storms are coming or where they will hit, but if we keep doing predictions no one will question why we are working here

    June 1, 2012 at 2:46 pm | Report abuse |
  11. Jj

    I don't take these "forecasters" too seriously. They said it was going to be a hundred and twelve today. It's already hundred and eleven and it's only eleven thirty! Just like obomba "forecasted" the jobless rate would keep going down. Well, here we are still stuck at unemployment rate above eight percent. BTW, where is the story about these new numbers that came out today CNN?

    June 1, 2012 at 2:46 pm | Report abuse |
    • bandit109

      @ Jj

      Umm, on the CNN front page the link directly below the one for this article is "Weak jobs report shocks economists". Then there's "How they crunch the numbers" and "DOW erases 2012 gains" right below that.

      June 1, 2012 at 2:53 pm | Report abuse |
  12. Dan

    "Hurricane forecast a bit scarier!" Oh $&%*! *Reads article* -__-

    June 1, 2012 at 2:51 pm | Report abuse |
  13. Boney Lee

    William Gray of Colorado State is the world leader in this "seasonal prediction" science. And his batting average is below the mendoza line. Verdict: it's junk science.

    June 1, 2012 at 2:53 pm | Report abuse |
  14. Gerald

    What a "Joke" when I hear forecast/Meteorologist ppl saying that this season is going to be quieter than previous ones lol (not referring to this article). We in PUR haven’t seen/experienced droughts for more than 3 years IN a ROW and that suggests that problems are on their way! And BIG swells (tropical systems) on the way too 4 good surfing!!!

    June 1, 2012 at 2:55 pm | Report abuse |
  15. J

    That's hilarious that they changed the forecast after we already had a couple of storms. That's like saying it's going rain when it's already raining then wanting credit for it. It's better if no one pays attention to the forecast and just prepares for the worst just in case. Irene last year flooded places that never thought they'd be affected by hurricanes.

    June 1, 2012 at 2:57 pm | Report abuse |
    • andrea

      yeh and didnt do anything in the places that claimed were going to be damaged. I'm on Long Island...I think a twig broke off a tree in my backyard yet they hyped it up soo much

      June 1, 2012 at 3:10 pm | Report abuse |
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