Hurricane forecasters raise 2012 predictions
Hurricane Irene rages on August 25 in the Caribbean Sea.
June 1st, 2012
02:07 PM ET

Hurricane forecasters raise 2012 predictions

On the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters at Colorado State University have increased their predictions for the number of named storms for the year but are still predicting a below-average number of storms.

Philip Klotzbach and William Gray of Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Science are predicting 13 named tropical storms for the season, an increase of three from their forecast released in April. They say five of those storms will be hurricanes (with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or above), an increase from four hurricanes in their April forecast.

The forecast for a major hurricane, a Category 3, 4 or 5 storm with winds well above 100 mph, remains at two.

The probability of one major hurricane hitting any part of the U.S. coastline is 48%, they said. The average for the past century has been 52%.

The CSU forecasters note that the two May tropical storms we've seen this year, Alberto and Beryl, are included among the 13 predicted for the season. They said the fact that 2012 has seen two storms doesn't portend anything for the rest of the year.

"Pre-1 June activity has very little bearing on the rest of the hurricane season. The only two seasons on record with two named storms prior to 1 June were 1887 and 1908. While 1887 was a very active season, 1908 had average levels of activity. The last season with a U.S. landfall prior to 1 June was 1976, which was a relatively quiet season," the forecasters said.

On May 24, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced that it expected a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with nine to 15 named storms and four to eight hurricanes. NOAA expects one to three of the hurricanes to be major ones.

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Filed under: Hurricanes • Tropical weather • Weather
soundoff (105 Responses)
  1. nolongerarepublican

    Remember when the same people predicted 14 hurricanes and we had none?
    But this does give the insurance companies an excuse to raise rates, on the 90% of Americans who live on the coast, for more obscene profits, so I guess the prediction has some purpose.
    Heck, make it 1000 hurricanes, that would let the insurance companies make a lot more money!

    June 1, 2012 at 3:43 pm | Report abuse |
    • youreanidiot

      Insurance is all regulated you moron. You cant raise rates because of hurricanes that have not yet happened.

      June 1, 2012 at 4:02 pm | Report abuse |
    • satan

      keep eatin that waa burger and yer french cries:(

      June 1, 2012 at 4:14 pm | Report abuse |
    • Tha Chikin

      Insurance companies are thieves... plain and simple.

      June 1, 2012 at 4:21 pm | Report abuse |
    • Tha Chikin

      Youranidiot: Oh but they do! Regulated or not, they raise the rates all the time here in Florida.

      June 1, 2012 at 4:31 pm | Report abuse |
    • themateo

      They predict how many storms develop, not how many will actually make landfall. You're reaching here.

      June 1, 2012 at 4:44 pm | Report abuse |
  2. Snowicane

    Hopefully many will die

    June 1, 2012 at 3:43 pm | Report abuse |
    • sean

      10B will die on dec 21st 2012

      June 1, 2012 at 4:04 pm | Report abuse |
    • Mithead

      Hopefully starting with you!

      June 1, 2012 at 4:12 pm | Report abuse |
  3. Oh'really

    This is a joke every year and nothing is going to change this year.

    June 1, 2012 at 3:57 pm | Report abuse |
  4. sean

    was'nt even june yet and we had stroms already so i think its going to be a very busy summer then they think

    June 1, 2012 at 3:59 pm | Report abuse |
  5. Nico

    Colorado State Univ. doesn't sound like the logical place to research hurricanes. They should stick to grizzly bears and pine trees

    June 1, 2012 at 4:13 pm | Report abuse |
  6. earthquakes_anyone

    Ask State Farm Insurance if they adust their rates per these great and accurate predictions.

    Our insurance went up thousands of dollars the past few years, and we have had no storms hit us in 7 years.

    Like Vegas, guess everyone is banking the predictions are going to be right – cash in – and raise the insurance rates. Don't get refunds when they are wrong. Like the slot machines. But they arecso broke, they are now running a bank. They are the risk takers, but we are financing it. Like our current Washington adminstration.

    Change needs to occur in both areas. American families can't afford it anymore.

    June 1, 2012 at 4:15 pm | Report abuse |
  7. trex

    .......fake news just reported that due to the Federal Court siding with LGBT marrages........................HURRICANES WILL BE WORSE THIS YEAR...............................they know that from going to history church...........

    June 1, 2012 at 4:17 pm | Report abuse |
    • earthquakes_anyone


      Wow... Now you have gone and done it. You brought the creator into the picture. You may want to check the account of Noah in the book of Genesis. That is in the Bible. Do you have one?

      Now, if GOD says we are going to get a major hurricane hit anywhere on the coast of the US. I would take HIM at HIS WORD. He is never wrong.

      As for those at Colorado... The are guessing.... They don't control or create anything. GOD does.

      June 1, 2012 at 4:27 pm | Report abuse |
    • Guest

      earthquakes...That may be true for you believers, but some of us prefer science. Now, if a god is talking to you, you may have bigger problems than hurricanes.

      June 1, 2012 at 5:26 pm | Report abuse |
  8. John John

    These forecasters are jokers. Just because there were two storms before the official season began they revised there forecast

    June 1, 2012 at 4:21 pm | Report abuse |
  9. midogs2

    How come Colorado StaTes predictions differ from NOAA's, and the University of Illinois'

    June 1, 2012 at 4:22 pm | Report abuse |
    • earthquakes_anyone


      And the Power Ball lotto numbers are................

      Sorry, If I tell you... Everyone will know.....

      June 1, 2012 at 4:32 pm | Report abuse |
  10. moosewithaj

    aunty m aunty m...where are you aunty m..Wait hurricanes no tornadoes, that case, "Hey man, we be living the wild windy life man!"

    June 1, 2012 at 4:24 pm | Report abuse |
  11. Mark

    Least im up here in Syracuse NY. Not worried 🙂

    June 1, 2012 at 4:34 pm | Report abuse |
  12. earthquakes_anyone

    @Jim E.

    This blog is about hurricanes. What the heck are you writting about?

    Get on the right topic.

    June 1, 2012 at 4:35 pm | Report abuse |
  13. JIm E.

    What a moron I am – totally wrong article. So, what is this all about? Hurricanes? I was in Pensacola for Ivan and as far as I am concerned everything else is a rain shower. These predictions are inane. You can tell me MONTHS in advance how many storms we are going to have? Through what kind of tachyon ball are you viewing? We can't even predict the weather a WEEK in advance ANYWHERE in the ConUS. That is a fact, Jacks. They just like to have a reason to make up 26 funky names a year or whatever.

    June 1, 2012 at 4:36 pm | Report abuse |
  14. ncgirl


    While the states are there to make sure that other types of insurance are regulated and tow a line - our hurricane insurance (I am in NC) is through the state and they have no scruples. We went 2 years without a hurricane and both of those years we had HUGE increases in our hurricane wind insurance... so it does not quite work fairly when the state is involved.

    June 1, 2012 at 5:08 pm | Report abuse |
  15. kriss milner

    National Flood Insurance will protect anyone on the coast on our dime so it's all good...right?

    June 1, 2012 at 5:23 pm | Report abuse |
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