Hurricane forecasters raise 2012 predictions
Hurricane Irene rages on August 25 in the Caribbean Sea.
June 1st, 2012
02:07 PM ET

Hurricane forecasters raise 2012 predictions

On the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, forecasters at Colorado State University have increased their predictions for the number of named storms for the year but are still predicting a below-average number of storms.

Philip Klotzbach and William Gray of Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Science are predicting 13 named tropical storms for the season, an increase of three from their forecast released in April. They say five of those storms will be hurricanes (with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or above), an increase from four hurricanes in their April forecast.

The forecast for a major hurricane, a Category 3, 4 or 5 storm with winds well above 100 mph, remains at two.

The probability of one major hurricane hitting any part of the U.S. coastline is 48%, they said. The average for the past century has been 52%.

The CSU forecasters note that the two May tropical storms we've seen this year, Alberto and Beryl, are included among the 13 predicted for the season. They said the fact that 2012 has seen two storms doesn't portend anything for the rest of the year.

"Pre-1 June activity has very little bearing on the rest of the hurricane season. The only two seasons on record with two named storms prior to 1 June were 1887 and 1908. While 1887 was a very active season, 1908 had average levels of activity. The last season with a U.S. landfall prior to 1 June was 1976, which was a relatively quiet season," the forecasters said.

On May 24, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced that it expected a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with nine to 15 named storms and four to eight hurricanes. NOAA expects one to three of the hurricanes to be major ones.

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Filed under: Hurricanes • Tropical weather • Weather
soundoff (105 Responses)
  1. polycarp pio

    I predict a major hurricane will cause massive destruction to miami and to the north of miami, this year. My prediction is any where from 10% to 100% probability and in the likely hood you see it comming run for your life. PP

    June 1, 2012 at 5:29 pm | Report abuse |
    • Lizoro

      polycarp...................take an English class!

      June 1, 2012 at 5:45 pm | Report abuse |
    • Lizoro

      10 to 100% is NOT a prediction.................duh!

      June 1, 2012 at 5:46 pm | Report abuse |
    • sully

      50% of the works every time.

      June 1, 2012 at 7:44 pm | Report abuse |
  2. al gore

    I told you so!

    June 1, 2012 at 5:30 pm | Report abuse |
  3. youreanidiot

    let's not make a broad assumption of insurance companies. everyone complains about insurance companies until your house catches on fire and you really need them. so annoying. have you thought for one second that people are filing more claims just because the economy is in the tanks and who is on the hook for that fraud? insurance companies. everyone likes to complain....then dont buy it!! shut your mouth.

    June 1, 2012 at 5:37 pm | Report abuse |
  4. NJCoaster

    Dr. Gray at Colorado State is one of most well-respected hurricane experts in the world. Hate to break it to "Right Wing Insanity", but science provides the best answers to many climate questions, and Dr. Gray's forecasts are regularly used by insurance and shipping to plan for the next few months. And yes, science and computers are involved. You don't have to live on the coast to study whole-ocean temperatures and air currents.

    June 1, 2012 at 5:38 pm | Report abuse |
  5. Jason Noble

    The photo caption is wrong. That Hurricane is in the Atlantic ocean, not the Caribbean Sea. Come on guys, no wonder your ratings are failing!

    June 1, 2012 at 5:39 pm | Report abuse |
    • digitalclips

      True. Geography as well as science seems to have gone to the dogs in America. I suppose that's what happens when you explain everything by believing a god made it all by waving his magic wand.

      June 1, 2012 at 5:53 pm | Report abuse |
    • ConvenienceForeverFreshnessNever

      That all depends on whether the US State Department has unilaterally redefined the "boundary" of the Caribbean Sea.

      June 1, 2012 at 6:50 pm | Report abuse |
  6. Lucky

    I wish I could get paid a lot of money for guessing! Then, if I'm not right, everyone just says oh well and I laugh all the way to the bank. Must be nice!

    June 1, 2012 at 5:40 pm | Report abuse |
  7. TPF

    And I predict somewhere in United States it will rain today. This is one agency we could do away with and just have some guy off the street make his predictions. They are never right and no one should pay any attention to them. Pretty much like most of us do with Al Gore's lies.

    June 1, 2012 at 5:42 pm | Report abuse |
  8. BillDog

    These have been scientifically, and almost always wrong ! I don't understand why they even bother.

    June 1, 2012 at 5:42 pm | Report abuse |
  9. youreanidiot

    If you are not educated in actuaries then please stop talking.

    June 1, 2012 at 5:48 pm | Report abuse |
  10. alpine

    jason dude...the eye is in Caribbean Sea

    June 1, 2012 at 6:01 pm | Report abuse |
  11. monkeyjunction

    I don't know why i read the article, it was predictably inane. However, ^ DO know why I read the equally predictable and inane comments. I was hoping for a little @bobcat(inahat) humor. You didn't let me down my friend!!

    June 1, 2012 at 6:08 pm | Report abuse |
  12. nopenotreally

    60% of the time, it works everytime.

    June 1, 2012 at 6:33 pm | Report abuse |
  13. volsocal

    They should have those predictions all squared away by November.

    June 1, 2012 at 7:00 pm | Report abuse |
  14. kiuwalsh

    Its just the end of the beautiful world.. Its a warning to us humans, all these changes... People should be aware and get together for peace and love

    June 1, 2012 at 8:24 pm | Report abuse |
  15. @kiuwalsh

    People are aware. There's just too many greedy people in the world for there ever to be worldwide peace and love.
    Example: Ea. year since the industrial revolution began, it has been taking longer amounts of time for water to evaporate. (due to the shade of pollution) Evaporating ocean water is the 'engine' that drives our weather. Our leaders understand that to reduce the shade of pollution would only increase global warming, yet their greed motivates them to profit from this. (John Kerry pretending to be eco-friendly in his hybrid car, while his mansion homes have the carbon footprint equal to a small African nation)
    And really, by the time the avg. American eats his double chezzburger at lunch, his daily carbon footprint is already the largest on earth per capita.

    June 1, 2012 at 8:46 pm | Report abuse |
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